Sort and Cull                 11/03 14:55

   The Cattle Complex Yearns to Trade Higher

   As long as beef demand remains strong as it's been, the board continues to 
show good faith, and no new unexpected headlines develop that could affect the 
cattle complex, the market may be slowly gaining some footing following the 
steep decline it endured just a couple weeks ago.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

   Seeing Monday's trade come and go was a breath of fresh air as traders 
seemed to approach the cattle complex with the desire to move the complex 
higher -- as long as fundamental support suggested so.

   Luckily, the market had a few key wins last week: continued strong boxed 
beef demand and a mostly supportive tone throughout the futures complex. But 
upon seeing fed cash cattle prices still trading sharply lower, traders won't 
want to get ahead of themselves just yet.

   Last week, Southern live cattle traded at $235 to $235.50, which is $2.50 to 
$4.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle 
traded at mostly $358 to $360, which is $9.00 to $11.00 lower than the previous 
week's weighted average. And last week's negotiated fed cash cattle trade 
totaled 55,948 head. Of that, 75% (41,991 head) were committed to the market's 
nearby delivery, while the remaining 25% were committed to the market's 
deferred delivery option.

   Holiday demand for beef should only continue to improve through the year's 
end; but monitoring both fed cash cattle prices and the market's sentiment in 
feeder cattle sales across the countryside will remain an influential factor 
moving forward.

   With the gains made last week in the futures complex and now seeing how 
traders were willing to support the contracts throughout Monday's trade, I'm 
hopeful that -- so long as beef demand remains strong as it's been, the board 
continues to show good faith, and no new unexpected headlines develop that 
could waywardly affect the cattle complex -- the market may be slowly gaining 
some footing following the steep decline it endured just a couple weeks ago.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com




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