Ag Weather Forum              03/12 08:40

   Winter Featured Warmth and Drought Expansion in Many US Crop Areas

   U.S. December-February temperatures topped the 20th-century average by 
almost 5 degrees Fahrenheit.

Bryce Anderson
Ag Meteorologist Emeritus

   Details of temperature and precipitation for the United States in the month 
of February and for the 2025-26 meteorological winter season 
(December-January-February) have been compiled; and they show, overall, the 
winter just passed was mainly very warm and very dry.

   The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) found the 
average meteorological winter-season temperature was 37.1 degrees Fahrenheit, 
4.9 degrees above the 20th-century average, ranking as the second-warmest 
winter in the 131-year record in the contiguous U.S. The 
December-January-February meteorological winter was also notably deficient on 
precipitation; it was the driest in 45 years, going back to the 1980-81 winter 
season.

   States in the western and southwestern U.S. spiked the most in their winter 
temperatures. The NOAA/NCEI U.S. climate assessment noted Arizona, New Mexico 
and Utah each broke their previous record for warmest winter seasons by more 
than 2 degrees Fahrenheit. Looking at the NOAA climate regions, the West and 
Southwest each experienced their warmest winter on record, and the Northwest, 
Northern Rockies and Plains as well as the South each ranked second warmest. 
(The period of record dates to 1895, a span of 131 years.) The Northeast 
climate region provided a contrast, with its temperatures ranking in the lowest 
third of its historical record.

   A key feature of this warm winter season was the daytime high temperature. 
The contiguous U.S. winter season daytime high temperature averaged 48.3 
degrees F -- 5.6 degrees above average. This marks the warmest winter for 
daytime highs on record. It is also the first time the seasonal average 
exceeded 48 degrees F. A prime example of this exceptional warmth was a 16-day 
stretch of maximum temperatures that reached at least 80 degrees F at 
Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas International Airport. It was the highest seasonal 
total on record.

   On the precipitation side, the contiguous U.S. averaged 4.95 inches of 
precipitation during winter, 1.84 inches (27%) below the 20th-century average, 
which is fifth-driest winter in the 131-year record. Large portions of the 
central and eastern U.S. experienced much-below-average precipitation -- 18 
states recorded one of their 10 driest winters on record -- while much of the 
western U.S. had near-average totals. The Upper Peninsula of Michigan was a 
notable exception, with much-above-average to record winter precipitation.

   Winter dryness in the central U.S. has some notable examples. According to 
the March 5, 2026, U.S. Drought Monitor: "90-day precipitation averaging less 
than half of normal across western Kentucky, southeastern Missouri, and much of 
Indiana and Illinois. Paducah, Kentucky, and Carbondale, Illinois, had their 
driest meteorological winter (Dec. 1, 2025, to Feb. 28, 2026) on record."

   Major crop areas also had winter dryness impacts. A review of USDA's March 3 
Ag in Drought report found these changes during the winter season: Corn-area 
drought grew from 30% to 51%; Soybean-area drought grew from 30% to 53%; Winter 
wheat drought grew from 35% to 56%.

   The combination of warmth and dryness in primary U.S. crop areas sharpens 
the emphasis on the importance of spring moisture. Soil profiles in many areas 
certainly need some recharge before the growing season sets in.

   Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com




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